A Two-Hour Marathon?

ONE of the mighty un-scaled peaks of athletics lost a little more of its once presumed invincibility late last month when Haile Gebrselassie gave the world a glimpse of the first two-hour marathon

More than four decades since the sport's last great conquests - Roger Bannister's destruction of the four-minute mile barrier in 1954 and Jim Hines breaking 10seconds for the 100m in 1968 - the same lasting legacy achieved by these two men beckons in the marathon.

Gebrselassie sliced 27 seconds off his own world record to win in 2hr03min 59sec

By breaking through the 2:04 barrier, he scattered the clouds that had obscured the two-hour peak.

Expert opinion is divided over how long it will take before the summit is reached, and some even remain doubtful it will be.

DAVID Bedford, the former world record holder for 10,000m and now race director of the London Marathon says: "Without doubt I will see a two-hour marathon in my lifetime." Bedford, who is 58, adds: "It might be towards the end of my life. It might be another 20 years. But, yes, it will happen." Bud Baldaro, who has been UK Athletics' marathon coach, agrees with Bedford

"I think it will happen now," he says

"They have been getting significantly closer for the past four or five years and I think that in the next 20 years someone who has the running economy and track-running pedigree of Gebrselassie or Kenenisa Bekele (10,000m world record holder) will do it." THE PESSIMISTS THE doubters include Ron Hill, who in 1970 was probably the first runner to go under the 2hr10min mark, the only other sub-2:10 time having been over a course now reckoned to have been short of full distance. He maintains his position despite having once said 2:05 could not be beaten

"I said that would be the limit before the altitude runners began to show their potential," Hill says

He also cites pre-race diet, in-race fuel supplies and pacemakers, unheard of in his time, as reasons for the record being faster than he previously thought possible

Hill might have thrown in the considerable financial rewards. Gebrselassie earned $265,590 plus an undisclosed appearance fee for his third win in Berlin

Glenn Latimer, one of the world's leading marathon authorities who oversees long-distance running in the US, is as sceptical as Hill about the likelihood of anyone breaking the two-hour barrier, describing it as "a far-off dream"

He was in a lead vehicle watching Gebrselassie run in Berlin, and says: "You could tell from Haile's face over the last four or five kilometres that it was hard work

"If you look at what his splits were, averaging around 14min 45sec for each 5km, they're amazing. You're talking something else altogether to go down significantly below this." "They'd have to invent some very good drugs for it to happen because we know what happens to the body after 30km. It really starts to suffer and break down," he says

THE CHAMPION GEBRSELASSIE, 35, is himself a believer in the two-hour marathon

"Maybe in 20 years, maybe 40 years. The more technology develops, the more athletes will run faster," he says

He reeled off kilometres at between 2min53.8sec and 2min 58.2sec as he broke the record he set a year ago in the same race. There have been seven records in Berlin - four men's, three women's

"The course is fast, the weather was perfect and the rain the day before made everything fresh," Gebrselassie says

"And the pacemakers were good. You don't often get all of these things together." The luxury of pacemakers referred to enviously by Hill and the unexpectedly strong run by Kenya's James Kwambai, who lowered his personal best by nearly five minutes in finishing second in 2:05:36, were important factors in Gebrselassie's run

However, only one of four pacemakers - Kenyan Abel Kirui - survived the relentlessly high pace beyond 30km, before being dropped at 32km

But Kwambai clung on and appeared briefly to be capable of staying with Gebrselassie until the finish

Eventually, though, even Kwambai was burned off with just over 5km to go, which had the positive affect of relieving Gebrselassie of having to engage in a tactical battle over the closing stages. With just the clock to beat Gebrselassie wound up the pace to produce his fastest 5km split between 35km and 40km - 14min29sec - which carried him to his 26th world best, over distances ranging from two miles to the marathon

THE MISSION PUT in terms of seconds per kilometre, the task of raising the pace from the one Gebrselassie ran last Sunday to the one needed to complete a two-hour marathon does not seem especially daunting: 2min55sec pace would have to come down to 2min51sec

Expressed in terms of distance, though, and a mere four seconds seems very different. It is about 24m a kilometre, which would be a substantial winning margin in a 1000m race

It is a figure that places Alan Storey, the UK Athletics' senior performance manager, on the side of those who believe two hours for the marathon is "somewhere between very unlikely and impossible"

"Given all of the science that we have available now, I have seen nothing to suggest another huge improvement could be made," Storey says

"If some exercise physiologist discovers something new and exciting then anything could be possible, but given all of the information we know about, I don't expect to see two hours broken in my lifetime - and I'm a youthful 63." THE FUTURE ASKED about what new and exciting things might be out there, Storey says: "If I had any idea what they were I'd have people working on them now - under wraps so that we could use them in 2012

"No doubt these physiologists are trying to find ways to cope with the stresses of running marathons, but I don't know anybody from a science background who thinks two hours is likely." Bedford might not claim to be from a scientific background, but he was an extraordinary runner who lowered the world 10,000m record by 7.6sec in 1973 when he ran 27min30.80sec

Bedford believes it will be achieved through a continuing evolution of times

"if you take Kenenisa Bekele as the No.1 10,000m runner at the moment, he is significantly faster than Haile Gebrselassie over the distance," he says

"Therefore I believe that when he and his generation move up to the marathon we will start to see times like 2hr02min30sec. And this will continue."